Category: Finance

The fall of China Mae: Part 3, Everybody laughs at the official statistics

10 March, 2016 (10:00) | Capital markets, China, Cities, Finance, Global news, Housing, Municipal finance, Speculation, Statistics, Theory, Urbanization | 1 comment

By: David A. Smith [Continued from yesterday’s Part 2 and the preceding Part 1.] “FTZs create corporate black boxes through which the anointed may flow money in and out of China.”  – Anne Stevenson-Yang, Research Director. Financial Times. September 26, 2014. Starting from the presumption that one knows nothing about China has proven to be a […]

The fall of China Mae: Part 2, Data disappears when it becomes negative

9 March, 2016 (10:00) | Capital markets, China, Cities, Finance, Global news, Housing, Municipal finance, Speculation, Statistics, Theory, Urbanization | No comments

By: David A. Smith [Continued from yesterday’s Part 1.] “The Chinese government wants you to “buy high, hold indefinitely’” … or else – Anne Stevenson-Yang in Barron’s on September 5, 2015. So facile are human minds that when confronted with a ‘nuclear fact’ – one that entirely disrupts the previous world-view – we can go […]

The fall of China Mae: Part 1, Choose any number that fits

8 March, 2016 (10:00) | Capital markets, China, Cities, Finance, Global news, Housing, Municipal finance, Speculation, Statistics, Theory, Urbanization | 1 comment

By: David A. Smith When they start lying about economic data, short them. – Smith’s Rule of Emerging-Market Investment (Written March, 2016, backdated to June, 2007) In January, 2008, I wrote a two-part blog post, Who’s next?, suggesting that Fannie Mae was overextended and due for a market correction. Though I believed my own prophecy, […]

Yuan to buy American housing? Part 4, Fall back on the tired old trick

4 February, 2016 (10:00) | Apartments, Capital control, Capital markets, China, Exchange rates, Finance, Global news, Housing, Investment, Monetary policy, Rental, Speculation, US News |

By: David A. Smith [Continued from yesterday’s Part 3 and the preceding Part 1 and Part 2.] You must not fight too often with one enemy, or you will teach him all your art of war. Napoleon Bonaparte Whenever a government decides to intervene in the financial markets – and modern governments are already intervening, […]

Yuan to buy American housing? Part 3, Befuddled by free markets

3 February, 2016 (10:00) | Apartments, Capital control, Capital markets, China, Exchange rates, Finance, Global news, Housing, Investment, Monetary policy, Rental, Speculation, US News |

By: David A. Smith [Continued from yesterday’s Part 2 and the preceding Part 1.] Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Napoleon Bonaparte Markets have a nasty habit of speaking truth to power, and for that reason, they are worth hearing, even when the power is the newly assertive nation of China […]