Kibera’s moment, Kenya’s moment
Something potentially remarkable is happening in
In
Kibera, known as the biggest slum in Africa, is a sprawling settlement on the outskirts of
Rooftops in Kibera, June 2005 during my visit
But Kibera is not only a treasure trove of votes in this election, which will be held on Thursday [It was held on December 27; see update below — Ed.] and is predicted to be the closest contest in
This increased focus on Kibera is heartening in many ways. Kibera’s people need a voice, and slums are vote banks. As I wrote in a post entitled urban cryptobiotica:
Unlike cryptobiotica, people can speak.
They’re against displacement
Slumdwellers can speak; in the voting booth wealth disappears. People who live in slums are just as smart as any of us. Even though individual slumdwellers are as nothing politically, when they join together and take control of their vote bank potential, they become a force that the highest officials respond to. Many date the fall of apartheid from the
Mumbai airport today, with slums that lap right up to the runways
It was a demonstration of distributed network intelligence, and it worked.
Just as government is a factory that produces two products (money and laws), politics is a game with two counters, money and votes. Individually, slumdwellers can be ignored; they are effective only when collective.
When slums become democratic, slums produce leaders:
Kibera is also the heart of Raila Odinga’s parliamentary district, and Odinga, a rich businessman who has campaigned as a champion of the poor, is the leading contender for president.
As a politician, Mr. Odinga needs to learn to smile more
Most polls indicate he is several percentage points ahead of
And here is where things get interesting.
The fine print of Kenyan election law says that to become president, a candidate must [reformatted by AHI — Ed.]:
1. Win the most votes nationwide
2. Win a seat in Parliament
3. Win at least 25% of the votes in five of the country’s eight provinces.
This is an extremely bizarre set of winning conditions, since it’s very easy to imagine circumstances in which no candidate can claim the presidency. It’s tailor-made for a constitutional crisis.
In Kibera, Odinga faces Stanley Livondo, a spirited challenger, who according to many residents, has been sprinkling around 500 shilling notes (the equivalent of about $8) and winning over converts.
Stanley Livondo (left) and Vice-President, Moody Awori
Livondo, also a businessman, was a political nobody until the president’s party got behind him a couple months ago. Livondo said in a campaign advertisement that Kibera’s residents had been “reduced to tourist attractions” and that if he wins a Parliament seat, he will bring the area 50 new toilets and at least one new fire engine.
Communal pit latrine in Kibera, built by
Personally, I don’t know how a fire engine would get in to Kibera, but pit latrines and sanitation would be most welcome.
Pedestrian way in Kibera, June 2005 during my visit
Many residents like the sound of that.
“Just look at this place,” said Simon Mugambe, a shopkeeper, jerking his head toward a river of sewage running by his feet. “Somebody needs to do something.”
Odinga has represented Kibera and the surrounding neighborhoods for the past 15 years. He won about 80 percent of the vote in the last parliamentary race in 2002, his campaign said. But this time he must reckon with a united front to defeat him. Several other parliamentary candidates recently pulled out of the race, throwing their support behind Livondo. Odinga’s campaign is now worried that any election irregularities, like buying votes, could cost Odinga his seat, and therefore the presidency.
Here’s the first of the shenanigan worries: a candidate favored by most of the electorate could be defeated by vote fraud in one constituency. [No hanging-chad jokes, please — Ed.]
Kibaki, though, has to contend with the other electoral wrinkle - the five-out-of-eight rule. Recent polls show the president’s support heavily concentrated in the few provinces home to many Kikuyus. In the others, his support is very thin.
President Kibaki celebrating
The result, after a passionate campaign season in which more than 20 people have been killed in election-related violence, could be an unclear outcome with neither major candidate declared winner. That would be bad, just about everyone agrees.
“The law is completely vague,” said Maina Kiai, chairman of the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights. “These things were not envisioned in the constitution and there will be a lot of confusion.”
“It’s a tricky one,” said Mani Lemayian, spokesman for
There is a possibility, Lemayian said, that there could a run-off between the second and third-place finishers, if the first place finisher did not win a Parliament seat. That would open the door for Kalonzo Musyoka, a former foreign minister, who is also running for president and has been ranked a distant third.
Although I have several friends in
On Saturday the election hung in the balance. On Sunday, the electoral commission declared Mr. Kibaki the winner. There are already claims of fraud, and outbreaks of violence and vengeance:
But the slow pace of the vote counting has sparked violence in some parts of the country.
The delay comes from rules requiring that ballots be hand-counted on site and then sent to
Roaming gangs armed with machetes and other homemade weapons burned shops and broke into the homes of their political opponents Saturday in Kibera, the largest slum in
CNN Producer Kim Norgaard and his crew witnessed gangs looting and then burning several stores, and visited the home of a local organizer of one of the ruling parties that had been set on fire early Saturday morning.
The man was taken to the hospital with machete wounds, Norgaard said.
People’s homes are being targeted according to their political affiliations, and armed gangs blame rival ethnic groups affiliated with local political parties for the violence.
Democracy is a process, not an event. Democracy empowers the poor. Empowerment occurs by fits and starts. It involves venality and crass self-interest and scheming. Like lots of other things, it’s messier in the event than the memory.
ODM supporter celebrating as a shop burns, Saturday
Given
Real democracy, even if flawed, creates political pressure, and that creates political vaporware, such as Mr. Odinga’s pledges. From elections come political capital, and political equity.
Update: Mr. Kibaki, the incumbent, has been declared the winner, amid allegations of widespread fraud,
Chief European Union observer Alexander Graf Lambsdorff said some doubts remained about the accuracy of the final count.
“We believe that, at this time, the ECK, despite the best efforts of its chairman, has not succeeded in establishing the credibility of the tallying process to the satisfaction of all parties and candidates,” he said in a statement.
“We regret that it has not been possible to address irregularities about which both the EU (observer mission) and the ECK have evidence … some doubt remains as to the accuracy of the result of the presidential election as announced today.”
Odinga had earlier alleged that “doctoring” was taking place at the ECK centre inself. ODM officials were locked in a crisis meeting after the announcement and did not immediately comment.
One election observer who asked not to be named said they were “in very little doubt” there had been rigging.
Mr. Odinga leaving election headquarters Sunday
And there is large-scale rioting in Kibera:
Delays announcing official results have triggered furious protests and ethnic clashes across the east African nation.
Riots convulsed Kibera — one of
“There’s a lot of heat over here. People are out in their thousands,” Kibera resident Joshua Odutu said against a backdrop of gunshots, whistles and shouting.
Police reinforcements in riot gear had been deployed in large numbers as many Kenyans feared worse violence was to come.
Good luck to
Children in Kibera, June 2005
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